Overall, the In The Money pollsters average forecast for 2011 was for a 5.9% gain to 1332. This seemed like a relatively conservative forecast for the first half of the year but things changed markedly in 2H11.
For the 10-year Treasury yield forecast, the winner was Gary Smith (aka "The Internet"). Although Gary's prediction of 3.00% was well bullish of the closing level at 1.87%, it was the most conservative guess in the group. The average forecast for the 10-yr yield was 4.34% last year.
This year (2012) will be our 8th annual year for the poll. With nearly all of the tallies in, the average forecast for this year is for the S&P 500 to gain 8.5% (1364) on the year. That's only slightly more bullish than the Wall St. bigwigs polled by Bloomberg who are looking for SPX 1348 (+7.2%). Our gang also has the 10-year yield finishing 2012 at 2.77%.
Good luck to everyone in 2012!!
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